It’s been two years since Stockport voters last went to the polls to decide who runs City Hall.
Already in 2019 – in the days before Covid – the number of elections was full of council members, candidates and activists eagerly awaiting the first results.
And when the ballot boxes arrived at City Hall, it was said that the Liberal Democrats had a “good night” ahead of them.
That murmur was fully confirmed later in the evening when the group won all five of their target seats – four at the expense of the Tories.
At the last shock, they were equated with Labor, each group having 26 councilors.
Senior Lib Dems initially stated that they would fight to take the reins. But in the end Labor stayed in the administration because of Mayor Laura Booth, who effectively had the casting vote.
Councilor Laura Booth
(Image: Stockport Council)
This situation, in which the Council has no general control but is led by Labor, has been the case for two years.
Last year’s elections were of course canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But could the balance of power shift back to the Lib Dems – or will Labor consolidate its position, which has been at the top since 2016?
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Last time the Lib Dems surfed the wave of a strong night for their party nationally, apparently benefiting from their clear position on stopping Brexit – albeit one that would not move to the general election just months later.
The group also took advantage of a collapse in the Conservative vote, largely due to the party’s natural voters’ dissatisfaction with Theresa May’s failure to achieve Brexit (as her successor would say).
At first glance, a replay would almost certainly see the Lib Dems at the top again.
However, the scope for Lib Dem gains appears to be much more limited this year.
The five wins they made in 2019 were all Conservative seats with the exception of Marple South and High Lane, where incumbent Kenny Blair was a former Tory who became independent.
This time around, those four Tory wards – Bredbury Green and Romiley, Hazel Grove, Stepping Hill, and Marple North – are all defended by Lib Dems, which means wins are impossible.
Alderman Mark Hunter
Barring some shocks elsewhere, that choice appears to be dependent on three seats – Cheadle Hulme North, Marple South and High Lane, and Offerton.
And it’s Marple South and High Lane, which perhaps represent a microcosm of the factors that could shape the fate of City Hall.
Aron Thornley took the place for the Lib Dems back in 2019.
The right-wing vote was split between incumbent Kenny Blair – who was elected Conservative but ran as Independent – and Tory candidate Darran Palmer.
With the Tories at the end of a protest vote, a perfect storm emerged with Coun Thornley voting 325 more votes than the couple together.
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Since then there have of course been some seismic events at the national and local levels.
The Tories won a parliamentary election on a promise to complete Brexit and the country left the EU.
And despite controversy over PPE, testing and tracing, and 150,000 deaths *, the hugely successful adoption of Covid vaccines has boosted Conservatives in the polls.
It could then be a difficult task for the Lib Dems to repeat their 2019 win on the station.
What could give the group an edge here was their longstanding opposition to the controversial Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, which included 500 homes on the High Lane green belt.
Councilor Linda Holt
But the side was dropped from the plan when Labor desperately tried to get it across the line, with Tory Councilor Tom Dowse and Hazel Grove MP William Wragg claiming the credit.
And after the Tories previously refused to support a call by Lib Dem to abandon the controversial plan, they joined them in a vote last October to reject the GMSF.
This will no doubt have played well in high lane and other areas where green belt concerns are high on the agenda.
Stockport was the only district to pull out of the plan, much to the annoyance and frustration of the Labor group.
The Conservative and Lib Dem streak that toppled the GMSF at Stockport couldn’t have been more short-lived, however.
If you fast-forward to the February budget-setting meeting, Lib Dem leader Coun Mark Hunter will go up against an “unholy alliance” by Labor Tory.
His group’s amendment proposing an increase in delegated community budgets had been blocked, while the Tory’s proposals for free parking met Labour’s blessing.
Obviously angry, he raged: “Sometimes it’s not what you say, but whoever says it, and I’m afraid that’s increasingly the case here at Stockport.”
His comments echo a widespread complaint from Lib Dem claiming the Labor Group is happy to spare the Tories as it keeps them in the driver’s seat of the City Hall.
Coun Hunter had previously accused Labor and the Tories of working “hand in hand”, claiming they were united by their “mutual aversion to the Liberal Democrats”.
However, in the other two key seats, it appears to be a direct shootout between Labor and the Lib Dems.
Job candidate Joe Barratt (right) with brother Tom – the couple who started the Teenage Market program in Stockport
Cheadle Hulme North will be another important battlefield for both parties.
Coun David Meller took one of the three seats for Labor by just two votes in 2018, although Tom Morrison of the Lib Dems comfortably won the seat the following year.
Next month’s election is an unknown quantity. Lib Dem staunch Coun John Pantall is retiring after 42 years.
Jilly Julian will hope to pick up where he left off but is sure to face strong opposition from Labor’s Claire Vibert.
Another key figure who will retire in May is Offerton’s only labor council – former mayor Coun Laura Booth.
Interestingly, Coun Booth won her seat as Lib Dem in 2016.
It remains to be seen whether Joe Barratt – famous for Foodie Friday – can mistake Offerton for Labor or whether voters will make it a clean game for the Lib Dems with the return of Oliver Harrison.
It seems almost certain that Stockport will remain under no general control for another 12 months, with neither Labor nor the Lib Dems showing up with the majority.
But who’s going to be the biggest party at the end of the night is almost impossible to call.
It could well be left to what is currently the third largest group – the Conservatives – to act as “kingmakers” in the event that business needs to be done once all the votes are over.
* Government number for deaths with Covid-19 on death certificate dated April 15, 2021.
